01The dip is real, predictable, and survivable
Across 184 engagements we have measured the same shape every time. Output drops in months 0–3, recovers to baseline by month 4–5, and climbs to 1.5× by month 6 and 2–3× by months 9–12 on the workflows we automate. The dip is not a sign the project is failing. It is a sign the project is happening.
The reason: your senior people are training the system instead of doing their normal work. Every "is this output correct?" they answer in month one is a labelled training example that makes month four cheaper. Skipping that work to look busy in month two is the most common reason AI projects die in month three.
02What survives month three, and what does not
Survives
Engagements where the founder protected one or two senior people's calendar from week one — explicitly, in writing, with a backstop. The math is brutal: ~20% of two people's time, for 12 weeks.
Survives
Engagements with a written rollback plan if month three KPIs miss. Ironically, having the plan means almost nobody triggers it — the discipline of writing it forces the right scoping conversation.
Dies
Engagements that try to roll out across multiple teams in parallel before any one team has crossed the dip. The cognitive overhead of coordinating multiple half-finished agents kills momentum every time.
03Why we say this upfront
Most AI vendors hide the curve. They show you a hockey-stick deck, sell on month-six numbers, and then ghost when month-three reality hits. We do the opposite — we put the dip on the front page and we put the survival mechanics in the contract.
If you are reading this and thinking "we can't spare 20% of two senior people for three months", that is a real and important constraint. Tell us in the discovery call. We will either find a smaller scope that fits, or we will recommend you hold off until you can.
04A reading of the curve
For the deeper write-up — the four monthly checkpoints, the rollback triggers, the conversation we have with each operator at month three — see the field note Why your last AI tool got abandoned in 30 days. Or take the math straight to the bottom line in The €40,000 question.
